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Compliments of

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors

Phone: 610.834.8700

600 W. Germantown Pike | Suite 270

Plymouth Meeting, PA 19462

 

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors is a licensed mortgage lender by the PA Dept. of Banking and Securities, NJ Dept. of Banking & Insurance, the state of DE, the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, MD Mortgage Lender #23004 and VA State Corporation Commission #MC - 6797. NMLS #128570.

       

 
 

Turkey, Retail Sales, Housing Starts 

 
Over the past week, increased concerns about Turkey offset stronger than expected economic data, and mortgage rates ended the week with little change. 
 
Due to a combination of Turkish government policy decisions, U.S. Fed rate hikes, and other global factors, economic conditions in Turkey have been getting worse for quite a while. The clearest indication of Turkey's problems has been the steady decline in its currency, which has lost more than half its value over the last five years. Sharply higher inflation has been another consequence. To try to preserve their wealth, many citizens have taken measures such as buying gold. The situation in Turkey potentially could deteriorate even further as the Trump administration considers increasing tariffs on Turkish goods in response to the detention of an American pastor. 
 
While some investors feel that most of the issues are specific to Turkey, others worry that similar economic troubles will be seen in other emerging market countries in the future. The investor response has been a shift from riskier assets such as stocks to relatively safer assets such as bonds, including U.S. mortgage-backed securities (MBS), which has been mildly positive for mortgage rates.
 

 

The biggest economic release of the week was Wednesday's Retail Sales report. Excluding the volatile auto component, retail sales in July rose 0.6% from June, which was double the expected increase. However, the June results were revised lower, offsetting most of the outperformance in July. As a result, the data was only modestly negative for mortgage rates. 

 

 
A lack of inventory has been holding back home sales, and the latest data on new construction was not encouraging. In July housing starts increased just 1% from the downwardly revised June reading, which was the lowest in nearly two years. The modest increase was nearly equal for both single-family and multi-family units. After reaching a 10-year high in November 2017, single-family homebuilding has lost momentum. Builders point to skilled labor shortages and rising material costs as impediments to a faster pace of new construction. On the plus side, building permits matched the expected levels in July.
 
 
 
Looking ahead, the minutes from the August 1 Fed meeting will come out on Wednesday. These detailed minutes provide additional insight into the debate between Fed officials about future monetary policy and have the potential to move markets. Existing Home Sales will be released on Wednesday and New Home Sales on Thursday. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic activity, will come out on Friday. In addition, news about Turkey or tariffs could influence mortgage rates.
 

 

Weekly Change
Mortgage rates flat 0.00
Dow rose 200
NASDAQ fell 50

 

Calendar
Wed 8/22 Existing Home Sales
Wed 8/22 Fed Minutes
Fri 8/24 Durable Orders
 
All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.
 
 

 
 

Compliments of

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors

Phone: 610.834.8700

600 W. Germantown Pike | Suite 270

Plymouth Meeting, PA 19462

 

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors is a licensed mortgage lender by the PA Dept. of Banking and Securities, NJ Dept. of Banking & Insurance, the state of DE, the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, MD Mortgage Lender #23004 and VA State Corporation Commission #MC - 6797. NMLS #128570.

       

 
 

Mixed Inflation Data

 
It was a quiet week with no major surprises. Mortgage rates ended the week slightly lower. 
 

 

The most significant economic data released this week was the inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, looks at the price change for finished goods and services. Friday's release revealed that inflation has continued to rise in recent months. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, was 2.4% higher in July, up from an annual rate of increase of 2.3% in June. This matched the consensus forecast and was the highest level since September 2008.

 

 
By contrast, the Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of "intermediate" goods used by companies to produce finished products, which investors view as a little less indicative of the level of inflation in the economy as a whole. On Thursday, Core PPI was 2.7% higher in July, down from an annual rate of increase of 2.8% in June, and a little lower than expected. Since inflation is negative for bond yields, this report was mildly favorable for mortgage rates.
 
The JOLTS report measures job openings and labor turnover rates. Fed officials and investors value this data to help round out their views of the strength of the labor market. In June, there were 6.66 million job openings, which was close to the record levels seen in April. There were only 6.56 million people who reported that they were looking for work that month. It is rare to see more job openings than people seeking work. A large number of workers also willingly left their jobs. This is viewed as a sign of labor market strength, since people usually quit only if they expect that they can find better jobs. 
 
 
 
Looking ahead, Retail Sales will be released on Wednesday. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of all economic activity in the U.S., and the retail sales data is a key indicator of growth. Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic growth, also will come out on Wednesday. Housing Starts will be released on Tuesday.
 

 

Weekly Change
Mortgage rates fell 0.03
Dow fell 100
NASDAQ rose 50

 

Calendar
Wed 8/15 Retail Sales
Wed 8/15 Industrial Production
Thu 8/16 Housing Starts
 
All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.
 
 

 
 

Compliments of

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors

Phone: 610.834.8700

600 W. Germantown Pike | Suite 270

Plymouth Meeting, PA 19462

 

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors is a licensed mortgage lender by the PA Dept. of Banking and Securities, NJ Dept. of Banking & Insurance, the state of DE, the Florida Office of Financial Regulation, MD Mortgage Lender #23004 and VA State Corporation Commission #MC - 6797. NMLS #128570.

       

 
 

U.S. and EU Take a Step Back

 
The main influence on mortgage rates this week was fresh news about tariffs, which was negative for mortgage rates. The major economic data came in mostly on target, and Thursday's European Central Bank meeting contained no policy changes and had just a minor impact. As a result, mortgage rates ended a little higher. 
 
On Thursday, the Trump administration announced that the U.S. and the European Union (EU) had agreed not to escalate their trade dispute. Neither will impose further tariffs while the two sides attempt to work out their differences. If the U.S. and the EU can come to terms, it would allow them to work together to focus on improved trade agreements with other countries, most notably China. Investors reacted to the reduced chances of a trade war by shifting to riskier assets such as stocks from safer assets such as bonds, including mortgage-backed securities (MBS). The decrease in demand for MBS caused mortgage rates to rise a little. 
 

 

Friday's release of second quarter gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic growth, showed a massive increase of 4.1%, which was close to the expected levels. This was up from 2.2% during the first quarter and was the highest reading since the third quarter of 2014. Strength was seen in both consumer spending and business investment. Investors now will be watching to see if the underlying trend is closer to the first quarter or the second quarter levels.

 

 
 
 
Looking ahead, the important monthly Employment report will be released on Friday. As usual, these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before that, the Core PCE price index, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Tuesday. The ISM national manufacturing index will come out on Wednesday, and the ISM national services index will come out on Friday. The next Fed meeting will take place on Wednesday. No change in policy is expected. 
 

 

Weekly Change
Mortgage rates rose 0.03
Dow rose 500
NASDAQ fell 10

 

Calendar
Mon 7/30 Core PCE
Wed 8/1 Fed Meeting
Fri 8/3 Employment
 
All material Copyright © Ress No. 1, LTD (DBA MBSQuoteline) and may not be reproduced without permission.
 
 

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