Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors Blog

Plymouth Meeting, PA 19462

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors is a licensed mortgage lender by the PA Department of Banking & Securities, NJ Department of Banking and Insurance, the State of DE and the Florida Office of Financial Regulation. NMLS #128570.

Quiet Week

This week was one of the quietest of the year. The major economic data generally matched the expected levels, and mortgage rates ended nearly unchanged.

The most significant economic data released this week was the inflation data. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, looks at the price change for finished goods and services. Thursday's release revealed that inflation has continued to rise in recent months. Core CPI, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, was 2.3% higher in June, up from an annual rate of increase of 2.2% last month. This was the highest level since January 2017.

While it had little market impact, Fed officials took careful note of the latest JOLTS report. The data revealed that there were 6.6 million open positions, but only 6.1 million unemployed people in the labor force. 36% of small businesses reported not being able to fill open positions in June, matching the record peak seen in 2000. Also, a very high level of employees willingly left their jobs, which is an indication that they are confident in their prospects for finding another job. All of these signs point to a tightening labor market.

Looking ahead, Retail Sales will be released on Monday. Consumer spending accounts for about 70% of economic activity in the U.S., and the retail sales data is a key indicator of growth. Industrial Production, another important indicator of economic growth, will come out on Tuesday. Housing Starts will be released on Wednesday.

Weekly Change
Mortgage rates	flat	0.00
Dow	rose	700
NASDAQ	rose	300

Calendar
Mon	7/16	Retail Sales
Tue	7/17	Industrial Production
Wed	7/18	Housing Starts

Mortgage News for the week ended July 6, 2018

Jul 6

12:10

Category | General

MortgageTime

Mortgage Market News for the week ended July 06, 2018

Compliments of

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors

Plymouth Meeting, PA 19462

Mixed Employment Data

The main influence on mortgage rates this week was Friday's Employment report which was viewed on balance as a little weaker than expected. The Fed minutes and the other data had just a minor impact. As a result, mortgage rates ended lower.

Against a consensus forecast of 190,000, the economy gained 213,000 jobs in June. In addition, upward revisions added 37,000 jobs to the results for prior months. The economy has gained an average of 215,000 jobs per month so far this year, exceeding even the strong pace of 182,000 seen over this period last year.

The unemployment rate increased from an 18-year low of 3.8% to 4.0%, above the consensus for a flat reading of 3.8%. There are two factors which influence the unemployment rate, and June's increase was due to a surge of workers entering the labor force rather than job losses, so this actually was viewed as a sign of strength.

Average hourly earnings, an indicator of wage growth, fell slightly short of expectations. They were 2.7% higher than a year ago, the same annual rate of increase as last month. Overall, the shortfall in wage growth was viewed by investors as more significant than the strong job gains, and mortgage rates moved a little lower after the data.

The minutes from the June 13 Fed meeting released on Thursday contained no major surprises and caused little reaction for mortgage rates. Noteworthy, though, Fed officials discussed both upside and downside risks to the economy. They pointed to the recent tax cuts as a potential source of support for economic growth in coming years, but also the risk that increased trade tensions could slow future investment activity, which would be negative for the economy.

Looking ahead, the inflation data will get the most attention. The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the increase in prices of "intermediate" goods used by companies to produce finished products and will come out on Wednesday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI), the most closely watched monthly inflation report, will come out on Thursday. CPI looks at the price change for finished goods and services. In addition, Treasury auctions on Wednesday and Thursday could influence mortgage rates.

Weekly Change
Mortgage rates	fell	0.05
Dow	rose	100
NASDAQ	rose	100

Calendar
Wed	7/11	PPI
Wed	7/11	10-yr Auction
Thu	7/12	CPI

Mortgage News for the week ended June 29, 2018

Jun 29

1:00

Category | General

MortgageTime

Mortgage Market News for the week ended June 29, 2018

Compliments of

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors

Plymouth Meeting, PA 19462

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors is a licensed mortgage lender by the PA Department of Banking & Securities, NJ Department of Banking and Insurance, the State of DE, the Florida Office of Financial Regulation and MD Mortgage Lender #23004. NMLS# 128570.

Quiet Week

There were few surprises in the data released this week or in the other economic news. It was a quiet week, and mortgage rates ended a little lower.

One reason that the Fed has been raising the federal funds rate is that inflation has moved higher in recent months. The Fed's favored inflation indicator is the core PCE price index. After holding steady at levels close to 1.5% for nearly a year, core PCE has jumped over the last three months. Friday's release showed that core PCE in May was 2.0% higher than a year ago, the largest annual rate of increase since April 2012.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of economic growth, and it gets revised multiple times as new information is collected. For the last several years, first quarter GDP has been weaker than the other three quarters for reasons upon which economists disagree. This trend appears set to continue in 2018, as the latest reading for the first quarter showed a small downward revision to 2.0%. Early estimates for second quarter GDP are much higher at around 3.5% to 4.0%.

Recently released data revealed that the disparity between sales of previously owned homes and new homes continued in May. While contracts signed to purchase previously owned homes fell a little from April and were lower than a year ago, contracts signed to purchase new homes jumped 5% from April and were 14% higher than a year ago. A shortage of inventory of previously owned homes in many regions is clearly holding back sales.

Looking ahead, the important monthly Employment report will be released on Friday. As usual, these figures on the number of jobs, the unemployment rate, and wage inflation will be the most highly anticipated economic data of the month. Before that, the ISM national manufacturing index will be released on Monday, and the ISM national services index on Thursday. The minutes from the June 13 Fed meeting also will come out on Thursday. Mortgage markets will close early on Tuesday and will be closed on Wednesday.

Weekly Change
Mortgage rates	fell	0.03
Dow	fell	100
NASDAQ	fell	125

Calendar
Mon	7/2	ISM Manufacturing
Thu	7/5	Fed Minutes
Fri	7/6	Employment

Mortgage News for the week ended June 22, 2018

Jun 22

4:13

Category | General

MortgageTime

Mortgage Market News for the week ended June 22, 2018

Compliments of

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors

Plymouth Meeting, PA 19462

Housing Data

After last week's packed economic calendar, this week there was virtually no significant news except for some housing market data. It was an extremely quiet week, and mortgage rates ended almost unchanged.

In May, sales of previously owned homes decreased slightly from April, and they were 3% lower than a year ago. The inventory of previously owned homes for sale rose 3% from April to a 4.1-month supply, but it was 6% lower than a year ago. Even with the increase, inventory levels remain very low by historical standards and are holding back sales. A 6.0-month supply is considered a healthy balance between buyers and sellers. The median home price was 5% higher than a year ago.

In an encouraging sign, home builders may be helping to address the shortage of inventory. In May, housing starts jumped a stronger than expected 5% from April, to the highest level since July 2007. Both single-family and multi-family units rose by a comparable amount. Despite rising labor and lumber costs, builders appear to be eager to supply more homes to the markets.

Looking ahead, New Home Sales will be released on Monday. Durable Orders, an important indicator of economic activity, and Pending Home Sales will come out on Wednesday. Core PCE, the inflation indicator favored by the Fed, will be released on Friday. In addition, Treasury auctions on Wednesday and Thursday could influence mortgage rates.

Mortgage News for the week ended June 15, 2018

Jun 15

4:06

Category | General

MortgageTime

Mortgage Market News for the week ended June 15, 2018

Compliments of

Philadelphia Mortgage Advisors